Still an uphill battle for Barisan

As expected, Barisan Nasional cruised to victories in both by-elections in Galas, Kelantan, and Batu Sapi in Sabah.

The mood in the Barisan Nasional camp is obviously buoyant and everybody seems to be in the mood to celebrate especially since the victories coincided with the Hindu festival of Deepavali, which marks the victory of good over evil.

But just because of that coincidence, Barisan should not treat the by-election victories as victories of good over evil.

To treat the Opposition as evil would be the downfall of the ‘good’ guys.

This is simply because the victories are not reflective of the situation in other parts of Malaysia.

In Galas, which was a Barisan stronghold and a state seat within the Parliamentary constituency of Gua Musang where Umno veteran and Kelantan prince Tengku Razaleigh has reigned as king for many years, it was Ku Li’s charisma, influence and stature that won over the Orang Asli and Chinese voters (and some Malay voters too) that resulted in the Barisan victory.

Barisan’s Abdul Aziz Yusoff polled 5,324 votes against Dr Zulkefli Mohamed from PAS who obtained 4,134 votes.

In Batu Sapi, some observers say it was the emotional factor that pulled in the sympathy votes since fielding the widow of the late Batu Sapi MP, Datuk Edmund Chong Ket Wah, ensured that voters would be sympathetic to her cause (if at all she had a cause).

Barisan candidate Datin Linda Tsen Thau Lin of PBS won the Batu Sapi Parliamentary seat - she polled 9,773 votes to defeat PKR’s Ansari Abdullah (3,414 votes) and SAPP president Datuk Yong Teck Lee (2,031 votes).

Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was quick to state that while the wins in Galas and Batu Sapi could bolster the coalition’s chances in the next general election, it should not take things easy.

“Barisan can’t take things for granted, we still have a lot to do,” the Deputy Prime Minister said at the MIC Deepavali open house at the Putra World Trade Centre in Kuala Lumpur on Friday.

He is right - Barisan cannot take things for granted. Two victories in battles (in rather remote battlefields) do not mean Barisan can win the war.

Can Barisan win the battles in the urban areas? Can Barisan win the battles in Chinese-majority seats? Can Barisan win back the States and seats now controlled by Pakatan Rakyat?

Can Barisan win over the support of impressionable, rebellious and disenfranchised Malaysians? Can Barisan win over the support of the young voters who have grown up from adolescence to adulthood in an atmosphere of cynicism, skepticism and disbelief?

Despite the easy victories in the two by-election battles, it will still be an uphill battle for Barisan in the next general election.

Galas: Barisan victory imminent

Barisan Nasional is likely to win the Galas by-election in Kelantan on Nov 4, but that victory should not be interpreted as a sea change in the sentiment of Malaysian voters in general.

This is simply because Galas is one of the three state seats within the Gua Musang Parliamentary constituency which has always been a Barisan stronghold with Kelantan prince Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah lording over the area like a king.


It was simply the 'Political Tsunami' of the general elections in 2008 that resulted in lots of voters swinging over to support Pakatan Rakyat resulting in PAS' Che Hashim (whose death on Sept 27 resulted in the by-election) getting 4,399 votes and winning by a mere 646-vote majority. Tengku Razaleigh himself won the Parliamentary seat with a smaller margin of victory - 4,394 compared with 6,548 in 2004.


Now that Tengku Razaleigh has been appointed director of operations of the by-election, it is widely expected that his charisma and influence in the area will convince those who had switched camps, expecially the Chinese, to switch back.


The feeling is that the wave of discontent of the 'Political Tsunami' will not be as strong as it was in 2008, at least in that remote part of Kelantan, and Galas will revert to being a Barisan stronghold.


Observers had pointed out that the swing in Chinese votes ensured a PAS victory in 2008. The Chinese make up 22 per cent of the registered voters there.


Tengku Razaleigh has not lost touch with the grassroots especially the Chinese and the Orang Asli, who have always held him in high regard.


But that is the situation in that patch of land in rural Kelantan and it is not reflective of the situation in the other parts, especially urban areas, of the nation.


In these areas, the flood waters left by the 'Political Tsunami' have not been drained away yet and the anti-Barisan, anti-establishment sentiment is still very strong.


And these pools of political unrest are still the breeding grounds of even more discontent.